DTN Midday Grain Comments 12/13 12:19
Soybeans Up While Corn and Wheat Is Flat at Midday
Corn is flat to 1 cent higher, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher and wheat is
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow up 150. The dollar index is 30
higher. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up
$0.60 higher. Livestock trade is broadly higher. Precious metals are mixed with
gold up $8.30.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with support tied to the first
phase of the China trade deal being approved, although details remain murky and
we have pulled back from the overnight highs. Ethanol margins have narrowed,
but futures have firmed along with the corn since midweek. Open weather should
allow for more clean-up harvest, potentially. Basis has held up well with some
strength showing up at processors again, but firmer futures will likely limit
further gains. On the March contract, support is the 20-day at $3.78 and
holding at midday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.73 below that and
resistance the upper Bollinger band at $3.83, which we tested overnight.
Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade gapping higher on
the trade news, but unable to hold the 15- to 16-cent higher trade we saw
overnight with hard details likely needed to sustain buying. Meal is $1.00 to
$2.00 higher and oil is 0.25 cent to 0.35 cent higher. The real remains cheap
versus the dollar but is back at the high end of the recent range with
Brazilian weather still in good shape and Argentina more mixed short term. Bean
basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term. January chart support is
the lower Bollinger band at $8.66, which we are finally pulling away from, with
trade the 20-day at $8.93, with the upper Bollinger band at 9.20 serving as
Wheat trade is flat to 4 cents lower. Trade is fading along with the row
crops while KC scored a new high for the move before pulling back. The
Chicago/KC March spread is back to 86 cents narrowing from the high with
Chicago gaining a little at midday. Chicago is also holding a 5-cent premium to
Minneapolis, which has widened Thursdsay after sharply contracting. The dollar
remains rangebound. Export business remains quiet with Russian values rising
again and some midweek tenders. The forecast has some moisture for Kansas along
with warmer temps. The March KC chart support is the 20-day at 4.34, which we
jumped above yesterday, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $4.48,
which we tested before fading.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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