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Market Matters Blog           07/15 11:50
Lower Mississippi River to Gulf Under Siege Again 
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Remains Steady 
Corn Basis Heats Up With No Sign of Cooling Off
Trucking Hours of Service Reform Still Up in the Air
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Steady 
2019 Spring Wheat Acres Down: What Did Get Planted Went in Late
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Higher
Flooding Keeps Chokehold on Barge Traffic, Stalling Grain Shipments
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Strengthens
HRW Wheat Begins New Crop Year

******************************************************************************
Lower Mississippi River to Gulf Under Siege Again 

   It's no secret that it's been a very rough year so far on the entire 
Mississippi River System. Never-ending rains have kept water levels high, 
closing many locks and dams more than once and shuttering the St. Louis Harbor 
numerous times, virtually stopping any traffic north or south of there. In 
fact, the Lower Mississippi River (LMR) has experienced continued flooding 
events since February 2019.

   In the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), Locks 11 through 27 from the 
Illinois-Wisconsin border to St. Louis have been closed on and off over three 
months due to flooding conditions. 

   The Mississippi River at St. Louis has been at or above flood stage for 108 
consecutive days as of July 2, topping the previous record of 104 days set 
during the Great Flood of 1993. The flooding caused the U.S. Coast Guard to 
close the harbor twice when the levels reached above 38 feet. Between those 
closures and the lock and dam closures, loaded and/or empty barges were stuck 
in the UMR with nowhere to go. 

   In the LMR at Vicksburg, Mississippi, the river was at 49.08 feet on July 15 
(major flood stage is 50 feet) and is not expected to fall below flood stage 
until the end of July. In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the river has been in flood 
stage most of 2019 and now, thanks to Barry, it may be until August when the 
Mississippi River there slips below flood stage. As of July 15, the river there 
was above major flood stage (35 feet) at 42.17 feet.

   The river stage in New Orleans has been in its longest sustained flood stage 
level on record. The National Weather Service surge prediction on the 
Mississippi River there, because of Barry, was originally expected to be at 19 
to 20 feet. The actual surge crest pushed the river to 16.93 feet late in the 
evening of July 12. The water level is not expected to go below 16 feet until 
late July, according to current predictions.

   "The historically high water levels throughout the inland waterway system, 
including in the lower Mississippi River near the Gulf of Mexico, have been a 
consistent struggle for barge transportation feeding into the lower Mississippi 
River and have impeded the ability to load ocean vessels to their normal 
capacity," said Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation 
Coalition. "The 256-mile stretch of the Lower Mississippi River from Baton 
Rouge, Louisiana, to the Gulf of Mexico accounts for 60% of U.S. soybean 
exports and 59% of U.S. corn exports, by far the leading export region for both 
commodities."

   On July 9, the bar pilots (those responsible for navigating ocean vessels 
into and out of the lower Mississippi River), suspended all ships entering and 
exiting the lower river at the Southwest Pass due to the impending arrival of 
Barry. "As a result of that closure, soybean and grain exporters in the region 
will not be receiving or launching any vessels until the suspension has been 
lifted," said Steenhoek. "I am aware of soybean and grain exporters along the 
lower Mississippi River declaring force majeure, a provision in a contract that 
relieves a party (the soybean and grain exporter, in this case) from fulfilling 
the contract obligation due to events, like weather, that are outside their 
control." 

   BARGE MOVEMENTS TO THE GULF JUST STARTED TO RECOVER

   In their weekly Grain Transportation Report, USDA noted for the week ended 
July 6, barge grain movements totaled 779,876 tons, a 5% increase from the 
previous week and 33% lower than the same period last year. For the week ended 
July 4, 26 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf. This is 8% more 
than the same period last year. 

   Back in late June, when the St. Louis Harbor was closed, along with many of 
the locks in the UMR, USDA noted for the week ended June 22, barge grain 
movements totaled 161,662 tons. That was a 51% decrease from the previous week 
and 85% lower than the same period last year. For the week ended June 20, 21 
ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, 28% fewer than the same 
period last year

   For the week ended June 8, data for barge grain movements was not available 
because barges were stopped from moving south through Lock and Dam 27 on the 
Mississippi River because lock closures in the UMR and the flooding in the St. 
Louis that closed the harbor.

   Mike Steenhoek said, "Our disruption in trade has impeded farmers' ability 
to market their crop. Flooding this year has complicated farmers' ability to 
transport that crop. We were finally starting to see some relief along the 
inland waterway system and southern Louisiana. According to the USDA for the 
week ended June 29, 373 soybean and grain barges were unloaded in the New 
Orleans area, a 41% increase from the previous week.

   "Unfortunately, Tropical Storm Barry is imposing itself on this critical 
area of the agricultural logistics chain, which will only further encumber our 
ability to meet customer demand," added Steenhoek.

   Here is a link to the NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center: 
https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Remains Steady 

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) average spot price 
from the 40 locations DTN contacted was unchanged at $141 per ton for the week 
ended July 11. DDG prices were mixed this week as lower seasonal demand has 
come into play for prices and feeders also have other competing feeds to choose 
from.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended July 11 was at 88.17%. The value of DDG relative to 
soybean meal was at 45.25%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.22, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.56. 

   The midweek Energy Information Administration report noted ethanol plant 
production dropped 3.1% to a five-week low. However, there was a roughly 
200,000-barrel (bbl) build in ethanol stocks, pushing total supply to 23 
million bbl, a six-week high during the week ended July 5. Margins remain tight 
at many plants due in part to the continued rise in the cash corn basis, 
especially in the Eastern Corn Belt.

   In its weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "Barge CIF 
NOLA values are slightly lower while DDGS indications for FOB vessel Gulf are 
down $6 per metric ton (mt) for nearby delivery while deferred shipment months 
are down only $3/mt. Indications for 40-foot containers to Southeast Asia are 
up $2/mt this week."

   River conditions in the Lower Mississippi River (LMR), and especially the 
Gulf, are worsening, with the Gulf shut down ahead of Tropical Storm Barry that 
could potentially become a Category 1 hurricane over the weekend. Southwest 
Pass (a channel at the mouth of the Mississippi River that empties into the 
Gulf of Mexico) shut down Wednesday afternoon, and vessels that were heading to 
the Gulf will wait for the storm to move through. 

   The Mississippi River at New Orleans is expected to spike to 19 feet 
Saturday should there be a storm surge. With expected rainfall of up to 2 feet 
falling in New Orleans and into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley, we 
may see the LMR close to barge traffic temporarily until the water recedes.


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION            CURRENT        PREVIOUS   CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                             7/11/2019       6/27/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri                 Dry         $155           $155       $0
                                    Wet         $80             $80       $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
           Missouri Subject         Dry         $150           $150       $0
                                    Wet         $77             $77       $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois                 Dry         $147           $150       -$3
           Indiana                  Dry         $142           $145       -$3
           Iowa                     Dry         $132           $135       -$3
           Michigan                 Dry         $142           $145       -$3
           Minnesota                Dry         $132           $135       -$3
           North Dakota             Dry         $132           $135       -$3
           New York                 Dry         $152           $155       -$3
           South Dakota             Dry         $132           $135       -$3
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas                   Dry         $140           $140       $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana                  Dry         $165           $170       -$5
           Iowa                     Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Michigan                 Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Minnesota                Dry         $135           $140       -$5
           Missouri                 Dry         $165           $165       $0
           Ohio                     Dry         $165           $170       -$5
           South Dakota             Dry         $150           $150       $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas                   Dry         $145           $120       $25
                                    Wet         $40             $45       -$5
           Illinois                 Dry         $145           $148       -$3
           Nebraska                 Dry         $145           $120       $25
                                    Wet         $45             $45       $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois                 Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Indiana                  Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Iowa                     Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Michigan                 Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Minnesota                Dry         $130           $130       $0
           Nebraska                 Dry         $130           $130       $0
           New York                 Dry         $150           $150       $0
           North Dakota             Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Ohio                     Dry         $150           $150       $0
           South Dakota             Dry         $130           $130       $0
           Wisconsin                Dry         $135           $135       $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas    (210-345-3362)     (210-345-3362)
           Indiana                  Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Iowa                     Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Minnesota                Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Nebraska                 Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Ohio                     Dry         $150           $150       $0
           South Dakota             Dry         $130           $130       $0
           California               Dry         $195           $200       -$5
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California               Dry         $205           $214       -$9
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                       $141           $141       $0
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
Settlement Price:                         Quote Date     Bushel    Short Ton
Corn                                      7/11/2019      $4.4775   $159.91
Soybean Meal                              7/11/2019      $311.60
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price             $141.00
DDG Value Relative to:                                   7/11      6/27
Corn                                                     88.17%    89.73%
Soybean Meal                                             45.25%    45.16%
Cost Per Unit of Protein:
DDG                                                      $5.22     $5.22
Soybean Meal                                             $6.56     $6.57
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Corn Basis Heats Up With No Sign of Cooling Off

    Fireworks came early for the corn basis. The national average basis started 
to climb above the five-year average beginning in March. By the end of May, the 
basis was beginning to climb towards the five-year maximum average basis, 
surpassing that mark on July 3, and it doesn't appear to be backing down any 
time soon.

   DTN collects nearly 4,000 corn bids throughout the U.S., with most of those 
bids collected in the central part of the country. The average of all the bids 
collected becomes the daily DTN National Corn Index. Since the end of May, the 
strongest gains can be seen in Eastern Corn Belt (ECB) states, as this was one 
of areas of the U.S. having the most trouble planting this past spring.

   In Illinois, th regional average basis was at 24 cents under the July (N) 
contract on May 31. On June 26, ahead of the basis roll to the September 
futures, Illinois average basis was at -20N. If you looked at basis at certain 
elevators or ethanol plants, basis levels at some of those spots were bid in 
the range of +10 to +30 above the July futures, according to various comments 
from farmers and brokers, as well as bids collected by DTN in that timeframe.

   Even though corn supplies are not lacking, in the ECB there is concern that 
in areas of the ECB, like Ohio and Missouri, corn acres not planted may 
eventually lead to lower stocks, causing end users to have to go outside of 
their area to buy corn. Some corn from those areas recently moved to the 
southeast market when drought had become a concern for end users needing corn. 
Posted basis levels at some plants in Ohio are +65 over the September futures 
and farmers are reporting that in many of the Corn Belt states, basis has 
turned positive. Many noted that it is not something they remember happening 
before at this time of year, as the corn crop has normally been well on its way 
to "knee high on the Fourth of July." That's not necessarily the case this 
year. 

   With the cash price of corn becoming expensive, ethanol margins have 
weakened and rumors have surfaced that ethanol producers facing negative 
production margins are considering importing corn from Brazil. For the month of 
June prior to the basis roll to the September futures, the DTN National Corn 
Index was up 28 cents, while the national average corn basis was 11 cents 
stronger. 

   Producer selling remains slow, especially in the areas of the Eastern and 
Western Corn Belt where many acres were not planted, and those that were have 
not seen good growing conditions. In the July 1 USDA Crop Progress report, Ohio 
noted that for the week ended June 30, "some farmers had abandoned hope for 
getting all of their corn for grain planted." The condition of the corn that 
has been planted was only 31% in the good-to-excellent category, with the 
majority of the corn in the fair category.

   The other two Corn Belt states that showed sharp reductions in quality 
ratings as of June 30 were Indiana and Illinois, where corn basis has surged. 
Corn condition in Illinois was 5% very poor, 14% poor, 39% fair, 36% good, and 
6% excellent. In Indiana, corn condition was 5% very poor, 16% poor, 40% fair, 
35% good, and 4% excellent. In his closing grain comments on July 5, Dana R. 
Mantini, DTN Senior Analyst, noted that some areas in Indiana are "paying as 
much as +65U for cash corn." 

   Mantini also noted in his July 3 DTN Before the Bell morning comments that 
there was talk from the USDA that prevented planting acres could be over 10 
million and claims could be over $1 billion. He said that, "large corn 
deliveries against the expiring July futures are being stopped by commercials. 
The corn basis in the ECB remains very firm with values of as much as 45 
(cents) over for new crop, as end users scramble to secure supplies from a 
farmer who has little interest in selling after a 50-cent break from the highs."

   Nearly half of that break occurred after the June Planting Intentions report 
that sent the market on a downward spiral, when the USDA said that the corn 
area planted as of June 1 was estimated at 91.7 million acres, up 3% from last 
year. However, USDA said in a podcast the same day that, "because of extensive 
planting delays, USDA will re-survey farmers in 14 states about their 
plantings." Those updated numbers will be published in the USDA Crop Production 
report scheduled for Monday, Aug. 12.

   As for prevented planting acres, we should see our first real look in the 
mid-August Farm Service Agency (FSA) report when the first Crop Acreage Data 
reports for 2019 will commence to include their "prevented acres" report and 
also "planted acres (including failed acres)," according to the FSA website. 
These monthly reports detailing certified acreage from reports from local FSA 
offices will continue to be updated each month through the end of the year. 
Since farmers entering the prevented planting program obviously need to do so 
with their county agents, the FSA reports will be an important source to get a 
better handle on prevented planting acres and possibly even planted acres.

   In the meantime, until this market has a handle on acreage and farmers keep 
watch on their crop conditions in the areas that are struggling and hoping for 
improvement, expect the fireworks normally reserved for the Fourth of July to 
continue for the corn basis.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Trucking Hours of Service Reform Still Up in the Air

    On June 4, the House Appropriations Committee said in a news release that 
they approved the fiscal year 2020 Transportation, Housing and Urban 
Development (THUD), and related agencies bill on a vote of 29 to 21. The 
legislation funds the Department of Transportation, the Department of Housing 
and Urban Development, and other related agencies, including the United States 
Interagency Council on Homelessness. 

   Read the news release here:

   
https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/appropriations-committee-ap
proves-fiscal-year-2020-transportation-housing-and

   The bill, which prevents the Department of Transportation (DOT) from 
eliminating the 30-minute break requirement from current hours of service 
regulations, includes a provision that "prohibits future attacks on state meal 
and rest break laws" as it relates to the U.S. Department of Transportation's 
(DOT) Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) contentious Hours of 
Service (HOS) rule.

   Heavy Duty Trucking (HDT), media services for trucking and its allied 
industries, noted on its website on the same day the bill passed that, "The 
committee apparently didn't like the FMCSA's move late last year to announce 
that federal hours of service rules pre-empt state meal and rest break rules 
(most notably California's)." Right before Christmas 2018, the agency had 
granted petitions to preempt California's meal and rest break rules for truck 
drivers because they conflicted with current federal hours-of-service 
regulations. Even as the FMCSA was close to proposing new revisions to the 
hours of service rules, the THUD bill aims to stop the agency from dropping the 
30-minute rest break provision, according to HDT.

   "However, those provisions still face an uphill climb in becoming law," 
noted Overdrive, a magazine for leased owner-operators and independent 
owner-operators. "The policy riders must still clear the Senate, which has yet 
to unveil any appropriations bills, and be signed by President Trump. Likely, 
the Senate spending bills will differ from the House's versions, setting up a 
conference committee to work out the differences. In that scenario, the 
trucking riders would need to survive that process and then be passed again by 
both chambers, then signed by President Trump."

   EXEMPTION FOR HOS REMAINS FOR LIVESTOCK AND INSECT HAULERS FOR NOW

   In December 2018, the FMCSA announced a statutory exemption from electronic 
logging devices (ELDs) for transporters of livestock and insects to remain in 
place until further notice. The exemption was originally due to expire at the 
end of the government's fiscal year, September 30, 2018. Congress finally 
extended it again through December 21, 2018, and it was set to expire on June 
26, 2019. The term "livestock" includes cattle, elk, reindeer, bison, horses, 
deer, sheep, goats, swine, poultry, fish used for food and other animals that 
are part of a foundation herd.

   The use of an ELD intertwines with the HOS rule, because it requires all 
commercial drivers who prepare HOS records to connect an ELD to a vehicle's 
engine to record driving hours. Once the time expires, the ELD doesn't shut the 
truck down, but it alerts the driver that they are violating the rule if they 
continue to drive.

   This can be problematic for drivers who are carrying live animals (and even 
perishable commodities) and may be close to their final destination or have 
been delayed in traffic along their route. Because of the electronic 
monitoring, they are forced to park the truck or risk fines (or other 
penalties) if they continue to drive because the ELD records them going past 
their allotted hours. 

   On May 1, U.S. Senator for Nebraska, Ben Sasse reintroduced the Transporting 
Livestock Across America Safely Act, with Sasse leading a bipartisan group of 
senators in introducing the legislation.

   In a press release, Sass said that, "Agriculture drives Nebraska, and nobody 
works harder to ensure the safety and well-being of livestock than the 
Nebraskans who hustle day in and day out. Overly strict regulations are hurting 
our ranchers and our haulers. My legislation pushes back against those dumb 
regulations and works to promote safe transportation. This is good, reasonable, 
common sense, bipartisan legislation and it should pass so we can give 
Nebraskans the flexibility they need to keep livestock safe and to keep our 
state running and feeding the world."

   The Transporting Livestock Across America Safely (TLAAS) Act addresses these 
problems and eases the burden of these far-reaching HOS and ELD regulations for 
haulers of livestock or insects.

   The inflexibility of these regulations will be costly for haulers (who have 
a proven safety record) and place the well-being and welfare of cattle, hogs 
and other livestock at risk, noted the press release. Current law does not 
allow flexibility for livestock and insects to reach their destination given 
the vast geography of production and processing facilities, most often spanning 
from coastal states to the Midwest. 

   Extended stops for a hauler, which would be necessitated by the HOS 
regulations, are especially dangerous for livestock during summer or winter 
months; high humidity and winter temperatures with below freezing wind chills 
cause significant stress on livestock. 

   The current HOS rules are posted here: 
https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/regulations/hours-service/summary-hours-service-regula
tions

   Specifically, the Sasse legislation provides that HOS and ELD requirements 
are inapplicable until after a driver travels more than 300-air miles from 
their source. Drive time for HOS purposes does not start until after 300-air 
mile threshold.  

   In addition, it exempts loading and unloading times from the HOS calculation 
of driving time, extends the HOS on-duty time maximum hour requirement from 11 
hours to a minimum of 15 hours and a maximum of 18 hours and grants flexibility 
for drivers to rest at any point during their trip without counting against HOS 
time.

   The legislation also allows drivers to complete their trip, regardless of 
HOS requirements, if they come within 150-air miles of their delivery point. It 
also ensures that, after the driver completes their delivery and the truck is 
unloaded, the driver will take a break for a period that is five hours less 
than the maximum on-duty time (10 hours if a 15-hour drive time).

   The Nebraska Farm Bureau, Nebraska Cattlemen, National Cattlemen's Beef 
Association, U.S. Cattlemen's Association and the Livestock Marketing 
Association support the legislation. 

   The House bill that passed June 4 also included a continuation of the ELD 
waiver granted to livestock and insect haulers. Under the bill, such drivers 
can continue to run on paper logs through September 2020.

   SAFETY ADVOCATES RESIST CHANGES TO HOS

   Considerations for changes to the current HOS rule surround the safety of 
the drivers who share the roads with semis and whether extending hours for 
truckers can be a safety hazard. In the end, it could be a difficult balance to 
achieve.

   The FMCSA noted on their website that in the Large Truck and Bus Crash study 
for 2017 (updated May 2019), 4,889 large trucks and buses were involved in 
fatal crashes, a 9% increase from 2016. Although the number of large trucks and 
buses in fatal crashes has increased by 42% from its low of 3,432 in 2009, the 
2017 number is still 7% lower than the 21st century peak of 5,231 in 2005. From 
2016 to 2017, large truck and bus fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles 
traveled by all motor vehicles increased by 6.8%, from 0.146 to 0.156.

   Past studies have suggested that fatigue and/or sleep deprivation may be a 
contributing factor in at least 30% to 40% of heavy truck crashes. In the study 
on the FMCSA website, it was noted that "Distraction/Inattention" was the 
second most common for large truck drivers. The study said that there were 841 
large truck occupant fatalities in 2017, a 16% increase from the 725 fatalities 
in 2016. In 2017, 85% of these occupant fatalities were drivers of large 
trucks, and 15% were passengers in large trucks. 

   Here is a link to the entire study: 
https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/safety/data-and-statistics/large-truck-and-bus-crash-f
acts-2017 

   It is understandable that trucks hauling live cargos need some kind of 
reform to the HOS, like the ones mentioned in the Sasse TLAAS Act. However, the 
bottom line in all of this is that there needs to be a solution that protects 
the safety of not just live cargo being transported, but primarily, the safety 
of all drivers; regardless of what vehicle they are driving on the roads.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Steady 

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) average spot price 
from the 40 locations DTN contacted was unchanged at $141 per ton for the week 
ended June 27. DDG prices overall were steady as cash corn prices were flat and 
soymeal prices were lower this week. California DDG prices were lower across 
the board.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended June 27 was at 89.73% and is still below the 
five-year average. The value of DDG relative to soybean meal was at 45.16%. The 
cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.22, compared to the cost per unit of 
protein for soybean meal at $6.57. 

   The midweek Energy Information Administration report noted that plant 
production declined for the second consecutive week and ethanol inventory moved 
fractionally lower to 21.567 million barrels during the week ended June 21, 
placing it at the lowest since the week ended May 25, 2018. 

   In their weekly export DDGS update, the U.S. Grains Council stated, "On the 
export market, merchandisers report modest buying interest from Southeast Asia 
with several confirmed sales. FOB Gulf DDGS values are near $221/mt this week 
with 40-foot containers CIF Southeast Asia values rising $6/mt for spot 
delivery to $244/mt. Merchandisers note mostly quiet interest from Vietnam but 
a recent uptick in inquiries for July and August delivery. Buyers in Indonesia 
have also made several inquiries for July/August shipment."

   NOTE: The prices listed below are through the week ended June 27. Because of 
the Independence Holiday next week, there will be no price update. These prices 
may change between now and the next update in two weeks, so call the buyer to 
check on current prices after this week. 


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION       CURRENT     PREVIOUS CHANGE
                                                      6/20/
COMPANY       STATE                     6/27/2019      2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
              Missouri           Dry       $155        $150     $5
                                 Wet       $80         $80      $0
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
              Missouri Subject   Dry       $150        $145     $5
                                 Wet       $77         $75      $2
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
              Illinois           Dry       $150        $150     $0
              Indiana            Dry       $145        $145     $0
              Iowa               Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Michigan           Dry       $145        $145     $0
              Minnesota          Dry       $135        $135     $0
              North Dakota       Dry       $135        $135     $0
              New York           Dry       $155        $155     $0
              South Dakota       Dry       $135        $135     $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
              Kansas             Dry       $140        $138     $2
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
              Indiana            Dry       $170        $160    $10
              Iowa               Dry       $135        $145    -$10
              Michigan           Dry       $140        $150    -$10
              Minnesota          Dry       $140        $145    -$5
              Missouri           Dry       $165        $165     $0
              Ohio               Dry       $170        $165     $5
              South Dakota       Dry       $150        $145     $5
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas        Dry                $120      $120         $0
              Wet                $45       $45          $0
Illinois      Dry                $148      $140         $8
Nebraska      Dry                $120      $120         $0
              Wet                $45       $45          $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
              Illinois           Dry       $140        $140     $0
              Indiana            Dry       $140        $140     $0
              Iowa               Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Michigan           Dry       $135        $135     $0
              Minnesota          Dry       $130        $130     $0
              Nebraska           Dry       $130        $130     $0
              New York           Dry       $150        $150     $0
              North Dakota       Dry       $140        $140     $0
              Ohio               Dry       $150        $150     $0
              South Dakota       Dry       $130        $130     $0
              Wisconsin          Dry       $135        $135     $0
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas (210-345-3362) (210-345-3362)
Indiana       Dry                $140      $140         $0
Iowa          Dry                $135      $135         $0
Minnesota     Dry                $135      $135         $0
Nebraska      Dry                $135      $135         $0
Ohio          Dry                $150      $150         $0
South Dakota  Dry                $130      $130         $0
California    Dry                $200      $202        -$2
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California    Dry                $214      $220        -$6
*Prices listed per ton.
              Weekly Average               $141        $141     $0
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

           VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
            Settlement Price: Quote Date  Bushel Short Ton
                         Corn  6/27/2019 $4.4000   $157.14
                 Soybean Meal  6/27/2019 $312.20
DDG Weekly Average Spot Price    $141.00
                  DDG Value Relative to:  6/27     6/20
                                    Corn  89.73%    87.73%
                            Soybean Meal  45.16%    43.65%
               Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                     DDG   $5.22     $5.22
                            Soybean Meal   $6.57     $6.80

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
2019 Spring Wheat Acres Down: What Did Get Planted Went in Late

    Two months ago, I wrote a story titled "Lack of 2019 Spring Wheat Planting: 
Time to Push the Panic Button Yet?" 

   Click this link to read it:

   
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/market-matters-blog/blog-post/201
9/04/08/lack-2019-spring-wheat-planting-time

   I told farmers and elevator managers who contributed to that story, and a 
few others, that I would check back with them in May. That didn't happen, 
because the rain continued and late spring snow halted planting in some areas. 
I reached out to them to see how planting went and if all of the intended 
spring wheat acres were put in, and if not, what they planted instead, or were 
some acres idled?

   "Well, it has been a busy spring," said Tim Dufault, Crookston, Minnesota. 
"Some wheat seeding started in the far north area of North Dakota and Minnesota 
in late April. But things did not really get going hard until May. Therefore, 
spring wheat and sugar beets were two to three weeks late in seeding. We have 
had some heat. Overall, it has been a cool spring so far. This has been great 
for the wheat -- no stress."

   Dufault said that corn was next to go in the ground. "Acres were down a 
little from last year in the region. Cash prices dropping below $3 in April 
convinced growers to plant something else. Corn planting was a little later 
than farmers would like, but not outside a normal Northern Plains planting 
window. Most soybeans actually were seeded on time in northwestern Minnesota. 
Southeast North Dakota was wetter, and most of their beans were finished up in 
June. After the late planting, soybeans and corn are going to need heat units 
to catch up."

   Dufault noted that the soil moisture situation really varies. "Southeast 
North Dakota has some acres too wet and probably won't get planted this year 
with unharvested cornfields still an issue. Northeast North Dakota has been 
drier all spring and really could use a good soaker. We came into the spring 
with good moisture in northwest Minnesota and have had just enough rain to keep 
things growing."

   Dufault added, "I think everything in northwest Minnesota and northeast 
North Dakota will be planted. But I know of growers in southeast North Dakota 
who will have to leave large parts of their farms unplanted."

   Jeff Mortenson of Kennedy, Minnesota, told me that he planted hard red 
spring wheat, canola and soybeans. "We were fortunate up here and got 
everything planted and finished the night of May 21. It started to rain some 
the next day. I don't think there is much, if any prevented planting up here. 
Even on the flood ground. We got a needed rain a week or two ago."

   Mortenson said it would be nice to have some higher temperatures and timely 
rains to keep things growing. "Compared to a majority of the United States, we 
are lucky for once for how our spring went, even though it didn't look that way 
when it started with the flooding and cold temps."

   Keith Brandt, general manager of Plains Grain and Agronomy LLC in Enderlin, 
North Dakota, said spring wheat acres are down 10% to 12% from what farmers had 
intended to plant. "There is a big range in planting dates of April 23 to June 
11. Because of the cool and damp conditions, wheat planted by mid-May looks 
very good and has decent potential. The balance will be 10 to 15 
bushels-per-acre less on yield."

   Brandt said corn planting is finished in his area. "About 10% of the corn 
acres were prevented planting. Most of the corn looks good if it went in May 
31, but we will have to wait and see how much is pollinated by Aug. 1. Soybean 
planting is 98% done and acres only down slightly. Top-soil moisture is good 
and sub-soil moisture is surplus."

   "Feeling pretty fortunate compared to northern North Dakota where they are 
dry and squeaking by," said Mark Rohrich, Rohrich Farms, Ashley, North Dakota. 
"South of us, there are a lot of places with just rain and more rain. We got a 
whole lot of crop in and when guys were thinking about patching in some areas, 
rain comes back around."  

   I asked Rohrich how his spring wheat was doing and he said it was "decent," 
but some got in late. "Driving rain made soil like concrete. Could be a better 
stand; the late after rain stuff in the area has nice stands, but that was 
seeded end of May, early June. Mine was all in earlier. We are lucky to get as 
far as we have."

   Allan Klain of Turtle Lake, North Dakota, told me "seeding went really well. 
We started on wheat April 18 and finished May 8. We had good moisture and 
little shots of moisture have the crop looking good. We are not overly flush 
with moisture and could use some. Rain is in the forecast and we welcome it." 

   Klain said that, "Corn had a hard time getting out of the ground due to cold 
soil and there is a fair amount of cold inhibition stand loss in corn. All in 
all, we had a pretty easy planting season. There were minor fertilizer supply 
issues during the first part of May, but we got through it."  

   "The planting season turned out okay for those in our area, although to the 
east was somewhat of a disaster," said Tregg Cronin of Gettysburg, South 
Dakota. "On our farm, we were able to seed most of intentions with about 20% of 
our corn area ending up as prevent plant. Our soybean and sunflower acres were 
all able to be seeded, however."  

   Cronin said emerged crops look good after rain moved through his area during 
the last week. "Maturity is the concern with everything about two to three 
weeks behind, but we feel pretty good about prospects so far.

   "Our winter wheat is going through flowering right now with strong prospects 
expected. Our spring wheat should be heading out in about 10 to 14 days and 
prospects there look solid. We are expecting above average yields on both 
spring and winter wheat. A long fall will be needed for our row crops to reach 
full maturity, but it is a long way off to be worrying about frosts or wet 
crops that won't dry down," concluded Cronin.

   Matthew Morog, merchandising manager at CHS Midwest Cooperative in 
west-central South Dakota said, "I don't think we planted the intended spring 
wheat acres, but definitely not at the low end of the estimates. The wheat crop 
overall in the Onida-Pierre area looks very good, but honestly it could use a 
little shot of rain if we want to get those high-end yield estimates. Guys have 
been able to do a fair amount of fieldwork to keep wheat in condition, but 
there are areas that have been too wet to simply keep weeds down. Harvest will 
be about two weeks later than the norm for both spring and winter wheat." 

   "We maybe had 15% of the intended spring wheat acres planted in our area," 
said Todd Yeaton, shuttle facility manager in Kimball, South Dakota. "For corn, 
likely 60% of intended acres have been planted and 70% of soybean intended 
acres. The rest will be prevent plant on mainly last year corn ground and 
no-till farmers due to the stalks still terribly wet. Crops that were planted 
could use rain, as ground is hard." 

   Ryan Wagner, Roslyn, South Dakota said, "Compared to some of the disaster 
stories I am hearing out there, we got very lucky this spring. We started 
seeding spring wheat April 24 and were able to work off and on between rain 
events and finished up on May 10, getting 95% of our intended spring wheat 
acres in."  

   Wagner said they were able to start planting corn on May 4 and got a few 
days in before they got rained out. "We then had a nice open window May 10 
through May 17 when we were able to get the majority of the rest of the corn 
done. Rain then kept us out of the field for a good two weeks, and we were 
finally able to finish up the last whole field of corn on May 30 and continued 
to patch in wet spots until June 3.  

   "We were able to get some soybeans planted before the rains came in late 
May, but the majority of our soybeans were planted the first week of June. We 
wrapped up soybean planting for the most part on June 8 and finished completely 
filling in wet spots on June 13. It has also been a struggle to find days 
suitable for spraying, but we did manage to get a burndown and pre-emergent on 
everything and have sprayed the first pass post-emergent in wheat and are now 
working on spraying corn, so we are basically caught up there." 

   Tim Luken, manager at Oahe Grain, Onida, South Dakota, reminded me that two 
years ago they had a severe drought in his area, last year they had two serious 
hail events, and this year have had the wettest spring ever and there is still 
water standing around. 

   Luken said that in the area around him he estimated 70% of the spring wheat 
did get in but it will be late. "Normally, spring wheat is jointing by now, and 
that is at least a good week to 10 days off. Winter wheat is just starting to 
head out, which is two weeks later than normal. Needless to say, rather than 
harvest starting normal around July 10, it will likely be the end of July and 
that is the latest I have ever seen around here. 

   "Corn was being planted up to June 10 around here and then farmers gave up 
the ghost and starting either planting beans or sunflowers." Luken said that in 
his area, he expects to see 10% to 12% of acres getting enrolled in prevented 
planting.

   "Last year, corn was waist high by July 4 and this year we hope it's ankle 
high by the Fourth of July," said Luken. "It will be interesting if Mother 
Nature gives us some well needed time on the back end for the row crops. If it 
doesn't, it could make for a very interesting fall."

   So, what is next for the spring wheat and other crops, especially the ones 
that were planted late? Bryce Anderson, DTN Senior Ag Meterologist, wrote a 
weather blog on June 21, noting that, "Scientists with the National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the USDA Midwest Climate Hub are worried 
about how summer 2019 conditions will treat crops that are already behind the 
development time curve because of wet and cool weather. 

   Here is a link to the entire blog: 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2019/06/21/climatologists-
worry-time-run-2019

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Higher

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) average spot price 
from the 40 locations DTN contacted was $4 higher this week versus the prior 
week, at $141 per ton for the week ended June 20. Prices overall were steady to 
higher, as the cash price of corn continues higher. The DTN National Corn Index 
gained 11 cents versus one week ago.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended June 20 was at 87.73% and, while higher this week 
versus last, it is still below the five-year average. The value of DDG relative 
to soybean meal was at 43.65%. The cost per unit of protein for DDG was $5.22, 
compared to the cost per unit of protein for soybean meal at $6.80. 

   The EIA reported for the week ended June 14, ethanol supply in the U.S. was 
drawn down for the fourth consecutive week, falling 200,000 bbl to a one-year 
low at 21.6 million bbl.

   Weekly ethanol production was down, week over week, by 1.4% and up by 1.6% 
year over year.

   In its weekly update, the U.S. Grains Council noted DDGS indications were 
higher again this week. "Market stakeholders report a mostly quiet market this 
week. DDGS indications for FOB vessel Gulf are down slightly from last week, 
while July delivery is becoming harder to find. Indications for 40-foot 
containers to Southeast Asia recovered from last week's drop, increasing $3/mt 
on average. Merchandisers report continued interest from Indonesia and Vietnam, 
and new sales to South Korea (August delivery), new sales to Indonesia and 
continued strong interest from buyers in Vietnam."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION            CURRENT        PREVIOUS   CHANGE
COMPANY    STATE                             6/20/2019       6/13/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
           Missouri                 Dry         $150           $145       $5
                                    Wet         $80             $75       $5
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
           Missouri Subject         Dry         $145           $145       $0
                                    Wet         $75             $75       $0
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
           Illinois                 Dry         $150           $150       $0
           Indiana                  Dry         $145           $145       $0
           Iowa                     Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Michigan                 Dry         $145           $145       $0
           Minnesota                Dry         $135           $135       $0
           North Dakota             Dry         $135           $135       $0
           New York                 Dry         $155           $155       $0
           South Dakota             Dry         $135           $135       $0
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
           Kansas                   Dry         $138           $135       $3
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
           Indiana                  Dry         $160           $140       $20
           Iowa                     Dry         $145           $135       $10
           Michigan                 Dry         $150           $130       $20
           Minnesota                Dry         $145           $135       $10
           Missouri                 Dry         $165           $140       $25
           Ohio                     Dry         $165           $150       $15
           South Dakota             Dry         $145           $145       $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
           Kansas                   Dry         $120           $120       $0
                                    Wet         $45             $45       $0
           Illinois                 Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Nebraska                 Dry         $120           $120       $0
                                    Wet         $45             $45       $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
           Illinois                 Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Indiana                  Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Iowa                     Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Michigan                 Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Minnesota                Dry         $130           $130       $0
           Nebraska                 Dry         $130           $130       $0
           New York                 Dry         $150           $150       $0
           North Dakota             Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Ohio                     Dry         $150           $150       $0
           South Dakota             Dry         $130           $130       $0
           Wisconsin                Dry         $135           $130       $5
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas    (210-345-3362)     (210-345-3362)
           Indiana                  Dry         $140           $140       $0
           Iowa                     Dry         $135           $125       $10
           Minnesota                Dry         $135           $125       $10
           Nebraska                 Dry         $135           $135       $0
           Ohio                     Dry         $150           $150       $0
           South Dakota             Dry         $130           $130       $0
           California               Dry         $202           $205       -$3
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
           California               Dry         $220           $215       $5
*Prices listed per ton.
           Weekly Average                       $141           $137       $4
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

   **


                     VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
                        Settlement Price:   Quote Date      Bushel  Short Ton
                                     Corn      6/20/2019   $4.5000      $160.71
                             Soybean Meal      6/20/2019   $323.00
            DDG Weekly Average Spot Price        $141.00
                                  DDG Value Relative to:   6/20        6/13
                                                    Corn    87.73%       86.79%
                                            Soybean Meal    43.65%       42.59%
                               Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                                     DDG     $5.22        $5.07
                                            Soybean Meal     $6.80        $6.77
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com  

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
Flooding Keeps Chokehold on Barge Traffic, Stalling Grain Shipments

   The long, record-breaking flooding of 2019 on the Mississippi River system 
has taken a toll on farmland, personal property and the many cities and towns 
that line the rivers. It has also disrupted commerce on the rivers that depends 
on barges to move product, especially fertilizer, grain and oilseeds, to and 
from the Gulf of Mexico and other points along the way.

   Only 12 barges have made it to St. Paul, Minnesota, the northernmost point 
on the Upper Mississippi River, so far this shipping season. The Motor Vessel 
Aaron F. Barrett, pushing 12 barges heading to St. Paul, Minnesota, locked 
through Lock and Dam 2 near Hastings on April 24. Since then, flooding and 
ensuing lock closures have kept most of the entire Upper Mississippi River 
closed. Most recently, the closure of the St. Louis Harbor shut down barges 
from moving up or downriver through there.

   Upper Mississippi River Locks 11 through 27 from the Illinois-Wisconsin 
boarder to St. Louis have been closed on and off over the past three months due 
to flooding conditions. As of June 16, the United States Army Corps of 
Engineers (USACE) reported Lock and Dam 24, Lock and Dam 25, Mel Price Locks 
and Dam, Locks 27 and Costello Lock and Dam were still closed. Projected 
opening dates run from June 16 to as late as June 23. 

   Here is a link to the USACE St. Louis District reporting lock closures and 
other flood information: https://www.mvs.usace.army.mil/Home/Flood-Fight/. 

   The St. Louis Harbor is closed until the river level recedes below 38 feet, 
which is not expected to occur until June 20, according to current forecasts. 
Mississippi River levels at St. Louis crested for the second time this year at 
45.7 feet on June 10, 3.9 feet lower than the record level of 49.6 feet set on 
Aug. 1, 1993. On Sunday, June 16, the river stage was at 42.7 feet. 

   Here is a link to the National Weather Service hydrograph for current and 
future river stage forecasts at St. Louis: 
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lsx&gage=eadm7. 

   The Lower Mississippi River remains open below St. Louis, but barge traffic 
continues to be disrupted by reduced tow sizes and transit time due to 
restrictions of daylight-only hours under some bridges between St. Louis and 
the Gulf. Barges are also subject to no-wake zones that also slow their transit 
time to the Gulf.

   "The system and everything within are stressed and upside down," said Tom 
Russell, Russell Marine Group. "Barge logistics are totally out of balance. 
Empty barge availability in New Orleans is limited and costly, and ships are 
backing up in New Orleans waiting for cargo deliveries. Roads and bridges in 
flooded areas limit rail and truck movements."  

   In the Southwest Pass (SWP), there is congestion due to safety protocols and 
high water. These protocols include daylight-only docking/undocking at 
midstream terminals when water levels are above 12 feet and extra tug power 
remains in barge fleets at all times, said Russell. "At 16 feet and above, all 
vessel movement will be daylight only from mile marker 233 through 90.5. 
Vessels anchoring in that area with a draft of 35 feet or greater will maintain 
a pilot on board while at anchor." Other safety protocols are also in place 
when New Orleans experiences heavy fog.

   "Midweek, there were 15 to 20 ships in queue waiting entry," said Russell. 
"There are five dredges working in the SWP to maintain draft. Due to heavy 
flows and strong current, shoaling and sandbars are a major issue." The 
Southwest Pass is one of the channels at the mouth of the Mississippi River 
that empties into the Gulf of Mexico at the southwestern most tip of the 
Mississippi River. 

   Shoaling and sandbars will be problematic throughout the entire river system 
where flooding has been ongoing. In the St. Paul district, dredging continues 
because of shoaling and is expected to continue most of the 2019 shipping 
season, according to the USACE St. Paul. This may add to slowdown in traffic 
once barges are able to move through the river system again. The USACE St. Paul 
District reported on June 14 that there are currently three active 
channel-dredging operations in the Mississippi River, and two contract 
mechanical-dredge crews are mobilizing to begin the week of June 17.

   BASIS, BARGE FREIGHT HIGHER; LOADED BARGES REMAIN STUCK ABOVE ST. LOUIS

   According to USDA's weekly Grain Transportation Report, flooding continues 
to reduce the amount of barged grain on the Mississippi River and its 
tributaries. "So far this year, 13,194 barges of grain have been unloaded at 
ports on the lower Mississippi River. This is 15% fewer than last year, and 13% 
below the three-year average. Year-to-date tonnages of down-bound grain, at 
locking portions of the Mississippi, Ohio and Arkansas Rivers, were 10 million 
tons, 29% lower than last year and 35% lower than the three-year average." 

   Corn and soybean deliveries to New Orleans are near six-year lows, according 
to USDA, as hundreds of barges full of corn and soybeans have been kept waiting 
up river until water recedes. American Commercial Barge Line reported in their 
daily newsletter on June 14 that they currently have 629 barges destined to 
areas affected by adverse river conditions.

   As of June 15, the Mississippi River at New Orleans was holding steady at 
16.6 feet, and current predictions show that it will not drop below 16 feet 
until late July. "The river stage in New Orleans is now in the longest 
sustained flood stage level on record," added Russell. That record could likely 
continue as weekend forecasts called for scattered showers in the Gulf area. 

   Here is a link to the National Weather Service hydrograph for current and 
future river stage forecasts at New Orleans: 
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=lix&gage=norl1. 

   Cash basis for corn and soybeans on the Upper Mississippi River have 
strengthened for July and August delivery in anticipation of the river being 
nearly back to normal, allowing terminals to load out barges to move up and 
down river through St. Louis once again. Barge freight in that same area is 
high for the first two weeks of July and stays strong through the month, as 
there will be a big demand for empties. Basis has also been stronger in the 
Lower Mississippi River area as buyers need to get corn and soybeans to the 
Gulf for waiting ships.

   "Sooner or later, flood waters will recede," said Russell. "However, the 
consequences and repercussions will be felt for some time before returning to 
normal."

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com 

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
DTN Weekly DDG Average Price Strengthens

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The domestic distillers dried grains (DDG) average spot price 
from the 40 locations DTN contacted was $4 higher this week versus the prior 
week, at $137 per ton for the week ended June 13. DDG prices in the Eastern 
Corn Belt are more firm compared to other areas and, while Upper Midwest values 
are mixed, that may change once the Upper Mississippi River opens.

   While water is receding there, the river remains closed farther south where 
there are still seven locks closed. The biggest closure remains at St. Louis 
where water levels are at 43.7 feet as of midday June 14 and need to go below 
38 feet, which may not happen until June 19.

   Based on the average of prices collected by DTN, the value of DDG relative 
to corn for the week ended June 13 was at 86.79% and is below the five-year 
average. The value of DDG relative to soybean meal was at 42.59%. The cost per 
unit of protein for DDG was $5.07, compared to the cost per unit of protein for 
soybean meal at $6.77. 

   Ethanol supply in the United States moved sharply lower during the first 
week of June, falling to 11-month lows according to the recent Energy 
Information Administration report. EIA reported ethanol plant production gained 
52,000 bpd or 5% to 1.096 million bpd, reversing up from a four-week low.

   In its weekly update, the U.S. Grains Council noted DDGS indications were 
higher again this week. "DDGS indications for FOB vessel Gulf are higher this 
week at $222/mt for July delivery. Indications for 40-foot containers to 
Southeast Asia decreased $3/mt, on average, Merchandisers report new sales to 
Indonesia and continued strong interest from buyers in Vietnam."


ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CONFIRMATION       CURRENT   PREVIOUS  CHANGE
COMPANY       STATE                     6/13/2019  6/6/2019
Bartlett and Company, Kansas City, MO (816-753-6300)
              Missouri             Dry     $145      $142      $3
                                   Wet     $75        $74      $1
Show Me Ethanol LLC, Carrollton, MO (660-542-6493)
              Missouri Subject     Dry     $145      $135      $10
                                   Wet     $75        $65      $10
CHS, Minneapolis, MN (800-769-1066)
              Illinois             Dry     $150      $145      $5
              Indiana              Dry     $145      $140      $5
              Iowa                 Dry     $135      $130      $5
              Michigan             Dry     $145      $145      $0
              Minnesota            Dry     $135      $125      $10
              North Dakota         Dry     $135      $130      $5
              New York             Dry     $155      $155      $0
              South Dakota         Dry     $135      $115      $20
MGP Ingredients, Atchison, KS (800-255-0302 Ext. 5253)
              Kansas               Dry     $135      $135      $0
POET Nutrition, Sioux Falls, SD (888-327-8799)
              Indiana              Dry     $140      $140      $0
              Iowa                 Dry     $135      $135      $0
              Michigan             Dry     $130      $130      $0
              Minnesota            Dry     $135      $135      $0
              Missouri             Dry     $140      $140      $0
              Ohio                 Dry     $150      $150      $0
              South Dakota         Dry     $145      $145      $0
United BioEnergy, Wichita, KS (316-616-3521)
Kansas        Dry                  $120    $120       $0
              Wet                  $45     $45        $0
Illinois      Dry                  $140    $135       $5
Nebraska      Dry                  $120    $120       $0
              Wet                  $45     $45        $0
U.S. Commodities, Minneapolis, MN (888-293-1640)
              Illinois             Dry     $140      $130      $10
              Indiana              Dry     $140      $135      $5
              Iowa                 Dry     $135      $130      $5
              Michigan             Dry     $135      $130      $5
              Minnesota            Dry     $130      $125      $5
              Nebraska             Dry     $130      $125      $5
              New York             Dry     $150      $145      $5
              North Dakota         Dry     $140      $140      $0
              Ohio                 Dry     $150      $145      $5
              South Dakota         Dry     $130      $125      $5
              Wisconsin            Dry     $130      $120      $10
Valero Energy Corp, San Antonio Texas   (210-345-3362)
Call          Indiana              Dry     $140      $140      $0
Call          Iowa                 Dry     $125      $125      $0
Call          Minnesota            Dry     $125      $125      $0
Call          Nebraska             Dry     $135      $135      $0
Call          Ohio                 Dry     $150      $150      $0
Call          South Dakota         Dry     $130      $130      $0
Call          California           Dry     $205      $205      $0
Western Milling, Goshen, California (559-302-1074)
California    Dry                  $215    $205       $10
*Prices listed per ton.
              Weekly Average               $137      $133      $4
The weekly average prices above reflect only those companies DTN
collects spot prices from. States include: Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska,
Kansas, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Indiana. Prices for Pennsylvania, New York and
California are not included in the averages.

             VALUE OF DDG VS. CORN & SOYBEAN MEAL
               Settlement Price: Quote Date   Bushel Short Ton
                            Corn   6/13/2019 $4.4200   $157.86
                    Soybean Meal   6/13/2019 $321.70
   DDG Weekly Average Spot Price     $137.00
                      DDG Value Relative to:  6/13      6/6
                                        Corn  86.79%    88.56%
                                Soybean Meal  42.59%    42.10%
                   Cost Per Unit of Protein:
                                         DDG   $5.07     $4.93
                                Soybean Meal   $6.77     $6.65
Notes:
Corn and soybean prices take from DTN Market Quotes. DDG price
represents the average spot price from Midwest companies
collected on Thursday afternoons. Soybean meal cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 47.5. DDG cost per unit
of protein is cost per ton divided by 27.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************
HRW Wheat Begins New Crop Year

   Despite challenging growing conditions in many areas during the 2018 
harvest, the 2018 hard red winter (HRW) wheat crop had generally good kernel 
characteristics, according to the final U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) harvest 
report on Oct. 2, 2018. "Overall, 93% of composite, 91% of Gulf-Tributary and 
98% of Pacific Northwest (PNW)-Tributary samples graded U.S. No. 2 or better. 
Test weight averages were at 60.9 lb/bu, above the five-year average of 60.3 
lb/bu and above the prior year average of 60.5 lb/bu. The average wheat falling 
number was 373 seconds, which was comparable to the 2017 and five-year 
averages, and indicates sound wheat." (Falling number test is a determination 
of sprout damage in the wheat.)

   The USW report also noted the average protein in 2018 of 12.4% (12% moisture 
basis) was significantly higher than the prior year and equal to the five-year 
average. Protein content distribution varied by growing region; the 
Gulf-Tributary average was 12.7% and the PNW-Tributary average was 11.7%. 
Approximately 12% of the samples tested were less than 11.5% protein, 29% 
between 11.5% to 12.5% and 60% were greater than 12.5%.

   Here is a link to my 2018 HRW wheat harvest story on Aug. 20, 2018, that 
gives a good rundown of how the winter wheat growing areas around the U.S. 
fared: 
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/blogs/market-matters-blog/blog-post/201
8/08/20/2018-hard-red-winter-wheat-harvest .

   In USDA's September 28, 2018, Small Grains Summary report, USDA noted winter 
wheat yields in Kansas were at 38 bushel per acre (bpa), down from the 2017 
yield of 48 bpa. The yield in Oklahoma was at 28 bpa versus 34 bpa in 2017. 
Lower planted acres and drought conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma and many of the 
other key winter wheat states caused the lower yields in 2018.

   On Dec. 6, 2018, Kansas Wheat reported acres in Kansas would likely be lower 
than the prior year, possibly reaching new 100-year lows in the state. The 7.7 
million planted acres in fall 2017 were the third lowest in a century. 

   "Abnormal weather patterns in October and November contributed to the 
decrease in acres planted. According to the Kansas Mesonet, there was record 
precipitation throughout the state in October and below average temperatures in 
November," said Kansas Wheat. "The wet fall led to the state being essentially 
drought-free for the first time in years, but it also kept farmers out of the 
fields during fall harvest and wheat drilling time."

   In the Feb. 8, 2019, Winter Wheat Seedings report, USDA estimated that HRW 
wheat seeded area was expected to total 22.2 million acres, down 3% from 
seedings in 2018. Planted acreage was down versus the prior year across most of 
the growing region, with the largest declines in planted acreage estimated in 
California, Kansas and Oklahoma. Record low acreage was seeded in Nebraska, 
noted USDA.

   WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR HRW WHEAT FLAT PRICE?

   I asked Dan Maltby, a former HRW wheat buyer in Kansas City (KC) and 
currently a consultant for Risk Management Group in Minneapolis, for his price 
insight on last crop year and the year ahead. 

   "The past year was not a good one for U.S. HRW wheat producers unless they 
sold everything the first week of August 2018. Prices steadily eroded about 
$1.50 over the next 10 months," said Maltby. "This year, unfortunately, we 
might have already had the one marketing opportunity; although I don't yet 
think it's dead because there are three opportunities remaining that could 
help."

   Maltby said the first one involves corn planted acres and yield versus 
demand destruction. "This will take a while to play out and, unfortunately, may 
very well have done its thing IF corn acres were to yield 171 bpa," he said. 
Given the late planting, we are all well aware that this is anybody's guess at 
this point.

   "Second would be if spring wheat country stays dry; if so, expect the rally 
to be quick, and ultimately, probably fade," added Maltby. 

   Maltby said the third opportunity would be a Russian drought. "If that 
happens, then KC wheat will go much higher and stay up there much longer. The 
problem is that it is difficult to get reliable information from over there." 

   There is Australia, which is still dry and will probably stay dry, said 
Maltby. "But, Australian droughts don't seem to have the same rally power for 
KC wheat as Russia, Canada or this year, corn."

   Summing up his three opportunities, Malby said, "Both No. 2 and No. 3 are 
great until it rains, and then, no prisoners are taken on the way down."

   OLD-CROP BASIS STRENGTHENS OVER QUALITY CONCERNS IN NEW CROP

   Given the relentless rains and storms in the Southern Plains over the past 
month, it is likely the new-crop wheat will face some quality issues and lower 
protein than last year's crop. The KC spot market basis is already showing 
strength for milling quality old-crop HRW wheat, as mills are concerned about 
the potential for weather related problems in the new crop, especially in 
Oklahoma and Kansas.

   The DTN national average cash basis for the 2018-19 crop year ended above 
the maximum five-year average, much the same as the 2017-18 crop year. So far, 
early in the new-crop year of 2019-20, the DTN national average basis remains 
above the five-year average as well. This will likely remain the pattern given 
the potential quality issues.

   In their June 10, 2019, weekly harvest report, USW said rainstorms continue 
to hit the Great Plains and Midwest, significantly slowing harvest. "Harvest is 
22% complete in Texas and 1% in Oklahoma. In Kansas, there are increasing 
concerns about yield loss and impact from water; harvest is not expected to 
begin for another one to two weeks." 

   USW noted conditions have improved in Colorado and USDA estimates 80% of the 
crop there is in good-to-excellent condition. "HRW wheat conditions are also 
good in the Northern Plains and in Washington state. Harvest is still one or 
more weeks behind normal throughout the HRW wheat growing region as warmer 
weather is needed."

   The bottom line is that until all U.S. new-crop bushels are harvested, 
graded and in the bin, nobody can determine with 100% certainty what the 
new-crop quality is as it stands in the field. Given the current weather 
forecast, it could be a while before we get a good handle on new-crop quality 
because it may continue to deteriorate as it waits to be harvested. 

   According to the DTN forecast for the week ahead, DTN Senior Ag 
Meteorologist Mike Palmerino noted scattered light to moderate showers and 
thunderstorms with locally heavier in central Kansas. In northwest Kansas, 
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska, scattered to light showers are 
forecast. Dry conditions or just a few light showers are expected elsewhere. 

   "Near to above normal rainfall in the Southern Plains increases disease 
pressure on maturing wheat, lowers crop quality and disrupts the early 
harvest," added Palmerino.

   Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

   Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

******************************************************************************

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